Open Journal Systems


Asma Mohammed Bahurmoz, Nahla Samrgandi


In October 2015, The Saudi Council for Economic and Development Affairs unveiled an austerity plan in response to a drop in the price of oil to around US $26, which threw the country into an unexpected deficit of about $100 billion. Later on, an austerity plan evolved into the National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2020. The NTP focused on the key drivers for economic growth. Although only an outline of the NTP was released at the time, we speculate on what will be the best implementation policy. Knowing that the government is taking a developmental approach that is inclusive, transparent and accountable to all stakeholders in society, we opted to address this question as a multi criteria decision problem formulated in an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model. The ANP is a sound methodology for structuring the problem to find which policy to focus on to make the transformation as effective as possible, taking into account social and political factors in addition to economic ones. The ANP model showed that to make the transformation effective through blending socio-economic and political factors, policy-makers must give priority to management reform over privatization and fiscal reform policies.


Analytic Network Process, economic transformation, strategic planning, Saudi Arabia

Full Text:




Al Bassam, B. A. (2015) Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia: Myth or reality? Resources Policy, 44:112-117.

Al Mamun M, Sohag K, Samargandi N, Yasmeen F (2016) Does remittance fuel labour productivity in Bangladesh? The application of an asymmetric non-linear ARDL approach. Applied Economics. 48(50):4861-4877.

Auty, Richard M.(1990) Resource-based industrialization: Sowing the oil in eight exporting countries. New York: Oxford University Press.

Bhattacharyya S, Hodler R (2014) Do natural resource revenues hinder financial development? The role of political institutions. World Development 57: 101-113.

Brunnschweiler, C. N. (2008). Cursing the blessings? Natural resource abundance, institutions, and economic growth. World development. 36(3): 399-419.

Cheng, Eddie W.L.; Li, Heng; Yu, Ling 2005. The analytic network process approach to location selection: a shopping mall illustration Construction Innovation. 5 (2): 83-98.

Choudhury, M. A., & Al‐Sahlawi, M. A. (2000). Oil and non‐oil sectors in the Saudi Arabian economy. OPEC review. 24(3): 235-250.

Doraisami, A. (2015) Has Malaysia really escaped the resource curse? A closer look at the political economy of oil revenue management and expenditures. Resources Policy.45 :98-108.

Gelb AH (1988) Oil windfalls: blessing or curse? Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Gylfason T (2001) Natural resources, education, and economic development. European Economic Review 45(4): 847-859.

Hassan MK, Sanchez B, Yu JS (2011 ) Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from panel data. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 51(1): 88-104.

Holden S. (2013) Avoiding the resource curse the case Norway. Energy Policy. 63:870-876.

Husain A.M., K. Tazhibayeva and A. Ter-Martirosyan (2008 ) “Fiscal Pol- 21 icy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries ” IMF WP/08/253.

Karpak B, Topcu I (2010) Small medium manufacturing enterprises in Turkey: An analytic network process framework for prioritizing factors affecting success. International Journal of Production Economics. 125 (1): 60-70.

Liang Ch, Li Q (2008) Enterprise information system project selection with regard to BOCR. International Journal of Project Management 26: 810-820.

Looney, R. E. (1990 ) Oil Revenues and Dutch Disease in Saudi Arabia: Differential Impacts on Sectoral Growth. Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue canadienne d'études du développement. 11(1):119-133.

Mauri AG, Muccio S (2012) The public management reform: from theory to practice. International Journal of Advances in Management Science 1(3): 47-56.

Matsuyama K. (1992) Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth. Journal of economic theory. 58(2):317-334.

Mironov V. V., Petronevich A. V. (2015) Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia. Resources Policy. 46(2): 97-112.

Nair V., Chiun L. M., & Singh S. (2014) The international tourists’ perspective on Malaysia's economic transformation programme (ETP) Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences. 144:433-445.

Paz M. J. (2014) Oil and development in Brazil: Between an extractive and an industrialization strategy. Energy Policy. 73:501-511.

Percin S. (2010) The use of Analytic network process in selecting knowledge management strategies. Management Research Review 33(5): 452 – 471.

Pieschacon A. (2009) Oil booms and their impact through fiscal policy. Manuscript, Stanford University.

Raisinghani HS, Meade L, Schkade L (2007) Strategic e-business decision analysis using Analytic Network Process. IEEE Transactions Engineering Management 54 (4): 673-686.

Saaty T. (2001) The Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback. Pittsburgh (PA): RWS Publications.

– (2005) Theory and applications of the Analytic Network Process. Pittsburgh (PA): RWS Publications.

– (2008a) Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. Int. J. Services

Sciences 1(1): 83–98.

– (2008b) Applications to decisions under risk. European Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics: 1(1): 122-196.

– (2009) Applications of Analytic Network Process in Entertainment, Iranian Journal of Operations Research. 1 (2): 41-55.

Saaty T., Ozdemir M. (2005) The Encyclicon. Pittsburgh(PA): RWS Publications.

Sachs JD, Warner AM (1995 ) Natural resource abundance and economic growth (No. w5398 ) National Bureau of Economic Research.

– (1999) The big push, natural resource booms and growth. Journal of Development Economics 59(1): 43-76.

– (2001) The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review 45(4): 827-838.

Van der Ploeg, F. (2011). Natural resources: Curse or blessing?. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(2): 366-420.

Silvestri A, De Felice F, Petrillo A (2012) Multicriteria risk analysis to improve safety in manufacturing systems. International Journal of Production Research 50(17): 4806-4821.

Smith-Perera A, García-Melón M, Poveda-Bautista R, Pastor-Ferrando JP (2010) A project strategic index proposal for portfolio selection in electrical company based on the Analytic Network Process. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14: 1569-1579.

Wey W, Wu K (2007) Using ANP priorities with goal programming in resource allocation in transportation. Mathematical and Computer Modeling 46(7-8): 985-1000.

Yazdan GF, Hossein SSM (2013) FDI and ICT effects on productivity growth. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences 93: 1710-1715.