Open Journal Systems


Thomas L. Saaty, Lirong Wei


This paper is an analysis of Brexit, and asked the question, “Should the UK have Brexited the European Union?” We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to model the decision based on Benefit-Opportunities-Costs and Risks (BOCR). The AHP  structure considers various factors that may be taken into consideration from the perspective of the UK (Saaty, 1980). Questionnaires were used to obtain pairwise comparison judgments from experts and used to derive priorities for the factors and final decision to Brexit. The BOCR model results are combined in two ways. Both results show that the UK should remain a member of the EU. The referendum used showed the opposite result. The approach followed here can be used to educate people when voting on similar decisions.


Brexit; AHP; decision-making, Benefits, Opportunities, Cost, Risks, Decision Analysis, European Union, Eurozone

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