Open Journal Systems

SIMULATING TSUNAMI EVACUATION WITH MULTI-AGENTS AND DETERMINING A COUNTERMEASURE WITH AHP

Kazuhiro Kohara, Takuya Sugiyama

Abstract


We propose an integration method that uses agent-based modeling to simulate tsunami evacuation and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to make a decision on a countermeasure. First, we created multiagent coast models that include a tsunami agent, shelter agents, road agents and evacuee agents. Second, we divided the coast into several districts and predicted the tsunami evacuation success/failure number of each district by using a computer simulation with multiagent coast models. Third, we considered several countermeasures (adding a shelter, adding an evacuation route) using that prediction. Fourth, we estimated the effects of each countermeasure. Finally, we use AHP to determine the best countermeasure against a tsunami disaster.

 


Keywords


agent-based modeling; tsunami disaster; countermeasure decision making

Full Text:

PDF

References


Ginda, G., & Dytczak, M. (2016). A survey of AHP and ANP applications in civil engineering and urban management. ISAHP 2016.

Kohara, K., & Sekigawa, D. (2014). Sales prediction with multiagent town models and deciding stores location with AHP. ISAHP 2014.

Panayi, E., et al. (2012). Agent-based modeling of stock markets using existing order book data. MABS’12 (13th International Workshop on Multi-Agent Based Simulation). Doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-38859-0_8

Saaty, T. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New York: McGraw-Hill. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00137918308956077

Saaty, T., & Vargas, L. G. (1994). Decision making in economic, political, social and technological environments with the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Pittsburgh: RWS Publications. Doi:10.1016/0898-1221(95)90109-4

Saaty, T. (1996). The Analytic Network Process. Arlington: Expert Choice.

Saaty, T. (2001). Decision making for leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process for decisions in a complex world, Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.

Saaty, T., & Vargas, L. G. (2013). Decision making with the Analytic Network Process: Economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (Second Edition). Springer Verlag. Doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-7279-7_1

Saito, T., & Kagami, H. (2005). Simulation of evacuation behavior from tsunami utilizing multiagent system. Journal of Architecture and Planning, Transactions of AIJ, 597, 229-234. (in Japanese) Doi: http://doi.org/10.3130/aija.74.627

Yamane, S. et al. (2012). Agent-based social simulation for a checkout layout design of a specific supermarket. MABS’12 (13th International Workshop on Multi-Agent Based Simulation).




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v8i3.406