Open Journal Systems

PRIORITIZING HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT USING ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) – A CASE STUDY OF NEPAL

Rana Pratap Singh, Hans Peter Nachtnebel

Abstract


Nepal possesses huge hydropower potential but lacks experience, funding and political stability which are critical to development. Different national strategies have been proposed in the past ranging from promoting small scale hydro that provides local to regional economic incentives to the recommendation of large schemes to enhance national objectives. This paper analyses the last few decades of hydropower development in Nepal and proposes a multi-criterion approach, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), to identify projects considering social and environmental concerns in addition to economic objectives. A multi-perspective look at prioritizing hydropower schemes namely micro (below 1 MW), small (from 1-25 MW), medium (from 25-100 MW), big (from 100-1000 MW) and large (greater than 1000 MW) is important in order for hydropower development to proceed in the best possible way. This perspective could be of use in strengthening hydropower related strategy and policy in Nepal.

 

The prioritization procedure is embedded into a multi-objective framework including six goals, namely a technical goal measured by four criteria, a social goal with five criteria, an economic goal with six criteria, an environmental goal with 4 criteria, a political goal characterised by 4 criteria and an additional goal referring to the various uncertainties, expressed by five criteria.  Evidence based subjective value judgment based on secondary sources, mainly related documents and experts consultations, is used for the prioritization approach. This research could help policy makers to maximize the benefit to the country by adopting appropriate policies and strategies. 

 

The effectiveness of multi criteria evaluation techniques and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for hydropower prioritization is the focus of this research. The outcome of the paper is the secondary information based on the AHP application for hydropower scale of schemes prioritization.

 

This paper is presented in six sections.   The first section is the introduction focusing on the country context and MCDA in hydropower.  The second section discusses the problem definition, and the third section describes objectives and tasks. Similarly, the fourth section details the applied methodology, and the fifth section describes the results and discussion. Finally, the sixth section presents conclusions and recommendations of the research work.     


Keywords


Hydropower alternatives; AHP; prioritize; decision-making

Full Text:

PDF

References


Agrawala, S., Raksakulthai, V., Aalst, M.V., Larsen, P., Smith, J. & Reynolds, J. (2003). Development and climate change in Nepal: Focus on water resources and hydropower. Paris, France: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Ahmad, S. & Tahar, R.M., 2014. Selection of renewable energy sources for sustainable development of electricity generation system using analytic hierarchy process: A case of Malaysia. Renewable Energy, 63, 458–466.

Akash, B.A., Mamlook, R. & Mohsen, M.S. (1999). Multi – criteria selection of electric power plants using analytical hierarchy process. Electric Power System Research, 1999, 29-35.

DOI: 10.1016/S0378-7796(99)00004-8

Balali, V., Zahraie, B. & Roozbahani, A. (2014). A comparison of AHP and PROMETHEE family decision making methods for selection of building structural system. American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2(5), 149–159. Available at: http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajcea/2/5/1/index.html [Accessed October 1, 2014].

Bergner, M. (2013). Developing Nepal’s hydroelectric resources: Policy alternatives. University of Virginia.

Bhatta, R.P. & Khanal, S.N. (2010). Environmental impact assessment system in Nepal- A study on policy and legal instruments in Nepal. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 4(9), 586–594.

Bhattarai, B. (2012). Hydroelectricity- base for economic development. Vidhyut, a bi-annual publication of NEA.

Bhattarai, S. (2003). Analytical Hierarchy Process for developing decisions: prospects and progress in Nepal. In: Proceedings of International Symposium on the Analytical Hierarchy Process, ISAHP, 7-9 August 2003, Bali, Indonesia.

Bhattarai, S. (1997). Appropriate Scale of Hydropower Development for Nepal: An Analytical Hierarchy Process Approach. Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Master’s Thesis No. IP-2-97.

Bhattarai, S. & Fujiwara, O. (1995). Evaluation of appropriate scale of hydropower development for Nepal: Analytical Hierarchy Process approach, Infrastructure Planning and Management Program, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok.

Bodin, L. & Gass, S. (2004). Exercise for teaching the Analytical Hierarchy Process. INFORMS Transaction on Education, 4(2), 1-13.

Ertay, T., Kahraman, C. & Kaya, I. (2013). Evaluation of renewable energy alternatives using MACBETH and fuzzy AHP multicriteria methods: the case of Turkey. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 19(1), 38-62.

Fast, T. & Hansson S. (2013). Another dam development project? Development-forced displacement and resettlement in Nepal. Master’s Thesis, Lund University, Center for East and South-East Asian Studies.

Foran, T. 2009b. Making hydropower more sustainable? A sustainability measurement approach led by the Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Forum. Policy Brief. Draft July 2009. USER Working Paper WP-2009-14, Chiang Mai, Thailand: Unit for Social and Environmental Research (USER) - Chiang Mai University.

Ganoulis, J. (2006). Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for conflict resolution in sharing ground water resources. Retrieved on 27th Feb 2014, http://www.inweb.gr

Guitouni, A. & Martel, J.M. (1998). Tentative guidelines to help choosing an appropriate MCDA method. European Journal of Operational Research, 109, 501-521.

Gunawardena, U.A.D.P. (2010). Inequalities and externalities of power sector: A case of Broadlands hydropower project in Sri Lanka. Energy Policy, 38, 726-734.

Hajkowicz, S, & Collins, K. (2007). A review of Multiple Criteria Analysis for water resources planning and management. Water Resource Management, 21,1553-1566.

Haralambopoulos, D.A. & Polatidis, H. (2003). Renewable energy projects: structuring a multi-criteria group decision-making framework. Renewable Energy, 28, 961-973.

ICIMOD (2011). Glacial lakes and glacial lakes outburst floods in Nepal. International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal.

IHA (2014). Hydropower sustainability assessment protocol 2014. International Hydropower Association, retrieved 2/26/14, http://www.hydrosustainability.org/Protocol.aspx

Jha, A.K. (2069B.S.). Nepal’s hydropower now or never. Vidhyut, a bi-annual publication of NEA, 23(1), 86-87.

JICA (2013). Nationwide master plan study on Storage-type hydroelectric power development in Nepal. Nepal Electricity Authority, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Kuwar, S. (2070 B.S.) Lokmarg connecting mid hill (in Nepali). Retrieved on 31st Jan 2013, http://kantipuronline.com/np/2070/10/17/full-story/383413.html

Ledec, G. & Quintero, J.D. (2003). Good dams and bad dams: environmental criteria for site selection of hydroelectric projects. The World Bank. Latin America and Caribbean Region Sustainable Development Working Paper, 16, 21.

Loken, E. (2007). Use of multicriteria decision analysis methods for energy planning problems. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11, 1584-1595.

Londono, A., (2005). IDA guarantee paves renewed interest in private hydropower : the Nam Theun 2 Project - largest cross border project financing in East Asia, Washington DC.: World Bank

Marttunen, M., Sarkkula, J. & Hämäläinen, R.P. (2010). Special session on Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and its application opportunities in environmental planning and decision making. In Regional Workshop for Coordination of Research on Hydropower Development in the Lower Mekong Basin. Vientiane, 33.

Mathur, H.M. (2008). The future of large dams: Dealing with social, environmental, institutional and political costs. Hydro Nepal: Journal of Water, Energy and Environment, 2, 1–3.

Mendoza, G.A. & Martins, H. (2006). Multi-criteria decision analysis in natural resource management: A critical review of methods and new modelling paradigms. Forest Ecology and Management, 230,1–22.

Messerschmidt, D. (2008). An opportunities based approach to mitigating risks associated with infrastructure development projects. Hydro Nepal: Journal of Water, Energy and Environment, 3, 9-15.

DOI: 10.3126/hn.v3i0.1912

Nachtnebel, H.P., Eder, G. & Bogardi, I. (1994). Evaluation of criteria in hydropower utilization in the context of sustainable development, UNESCO Symposium “Water Resource Planning in Changing World” Karlsruhe. IV/13- IV/24.

NEA (2012). Janshakti Bibaran 2068/2069. Vidyut, Bi annual publication of NEA, 23(1), 88.

Nepal R. & Jamash T. (2012). Reforming small electricity under political instability: The case of Nepal. Energy Policy, 40, 242–251.

NPC (2002). The Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-2007). National Planning Commission, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal.

NRB (2013). Recent macro economic situation (English)—2069. Nepal Rastra Bank, Kathmandu, Nepal.

NSC (2012). Seismic hazard map of Nepal- Earthquake hazards program- USGS, National Seismological Center, Department of Mines and Geology.

Ozernoy, V.M. (1997). Proceedings of the XIth International Conference on MCDM, 1–6 August 1994, Coimbra, Portugal. In Joao Climaco, ed. Multicriteria Analysis. Verlin Berline: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 103.

Panday,B. (2003). Big hydro, big hanky-panky. Nepali Time. Retrieved on 15th Jan 2014. http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=4860

Panthi, K. (2007). Prioritizing and estimating hydropower construction risks: A case study of Nyadi hydropower project. University of New Mexico: Nepal Study Center, 16. Retrieved on 15th April 2014, http://hdl.handle.net/1928/3298

Pun, S.B. (2008). Hydropower development in Nepal: Lessons from past models. Hydro Nepal Journal of Water, Energy and Environment, 1(2), 5-8.

RAC (1992). Multi-Criteria Analysis as a resource assessment tool, Research Paper No. 6, March, Resource Assessment Commission, Canberra, Australia.

Rajauriya, A. (2012). Development of small hydropower projects in Nepal, Business Development Forum – Hydropower Special, 1, 6-12.

Rees, H.G., Holmes, M.G.R., Fry, M.J., Young, A.R., Pitson & D.G. (2006). Environmental Modelling & Software, 21(7), 1001-1012.

Rosso, M., Bottero, M., Pomarico, S., La Ferlita, S. & Comino, E. (2014). Integrating Multicriteria evaluation and stakeholders analysis for assessing hydropower projects. Energy Policy, 67, 870-881.

Saaty, R.W. (1987). The Analytic Hierarchy Process – what it is and how it is used. Mathematical Modelling, 9, 161–176.

Saaty, T.L. (1986). Axiomatic foundation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Management Science, 32(7), 841-855.

Saaty, T.L. (2007). Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory with The Analytic Hierarchy Process Vol. VI of The AHP Series (2nd ed), Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.

Shajari, S., Bakhshoode, M. & Soltani, G.R. (2008). Suitability of Multiple-Criteria Decision Making simulations to study irrigation water demand: A case study in the Doroudzan River Basin, Iran. American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, 2, 25-35.

Shrestha, R.B. (2012). What kind of projects are appropriate (in Nepali). Retrieved on 4th May 2012, http://gorkhapatra.org.np/gopa.detail.php?article_id=65356cat_id=18.

Shrestha, R.S. (2014). Hydropower financing & risk mitigation, downloaded on 10th Feb 2014, http://www.ratnasansar.com/2010/07/hydropower-financing-risk-mitigation.html.

Sovacool, B.K., Dhakal, S., Gippner, O. & Barnbawale M.J. (2010). Halting hydro: A review of the socio-technical barriers to hydroelectric power plants in Nepal. Energy, 36 (2011), 3468 – 3476.

Strin, L.Z., & Groselj, P. (2010). Multiple Criteria Methods with focus on Analytic Hierarchy Process and group decision making, Croatian Operational Research Review (CRORR), 1, 1 -11.

Subramanian, N. & Ramanathan, R. (2012). A review of application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in operation management. International Journal of Production Economics, 138(2), 215-241.

Supriyasilp, T., Pongput, K. & Boonyasirikul, T., 2009. Hydropower development priority using MCDM method. Energy Policy, 37, 1866–1875.

Thapa, B., Shrestha,R., Dhakal,P. & Thapa,B.S. (2005). Problems of Nepalese hydro-power projects due to suspended sediments. Journal of Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management, 8(3), 251-257.

Thut, W., Shrestha, R.S., Dafflon, B. & Aschwanden, H. (2011). Water and hydropower in federal Nepal: Development and decision making from a comparative perspective. Forum of Federations Canada. ISBN: 978-0-9877517-1-3.

Toloie-Eshlaghy, A. & Homayonfar, M., 2011. MCDM methodologies and applications: A literature review from 1999 to 2009. Research Journal of International Studies, (21), 86–137.

UNEP (2007). Dams and development project, a compendium of relevant practices for improved decision- making, planning and management of dams and their alternatives. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nation Environment Programme. ISBN: 978-92-807-2816-3

Vučijak, B. et al., 2013. Applicability of multicriteria decision aid to sustainable hydropower. Applied Energy, 101, 261–267. Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261912003960 [Accessed October 21, 2014].

Water and Energy Commission Secretariat ( 2010). Twenty-Year-Task-Force-Report 2010, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v7i2.253