STRATEGIC FORESIGHT USING AN ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE ELECTRIC GRID IN 2025.
This paper presents a strategic foresight study of the electrical grid throughout the South American region until 2025. The study considered the Climate Change phenomenon and many different energy sources, proposing a new methodology through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Monte Carlo simulation. The study also considered the earthquake in Japan and nuclear plant accident in Fukushima, and the technological convergence that will occur over the next 15 years in the electric grid sources. The research involved political, economic, social and technological (PEST) factors. Through PEST analysis and the involvement of an expert panel, it was possible to select the most influential variable for each PEST factor. In order to prioritize these factors and evaluate the different technological alternatives, an AHP model was developed. Then a Monte Carlo simulation was run 1000 times for electric generator source clusters. Four prospective scenarios of the electrical grid structure until 2025 in the South American region were defined. The study highlighted the contribution of renewable energy adding nuclear power as the main mix group as a source of energy by 2025. This indicates that it is possible to anticipate an electric grid until 2025 in the South American region with low impact on Climate Change.