NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY: A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING AND FORECASTING APPROACH FOR SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION
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Published
Jul 22, 2025
Yousaf Ali
Abstract
From 2019-2020, COVID-19 caused an uncertain situation in the petroleum industry that led to an imbalance in supply and demand and requires resilient solutions for the Pakistani industry’s sustainability. The current research seeks to find these solutions in two stages, i.e., decision-modeling and forecasting-modeling. In the first step, a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method called the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to rank the most preferred product in Pakistan’s petroleum industry and concluded that Premium Motor Gasoline (PMG) of Attock Refinery Limited (ARL) is the most preferred alternative. This alternative was further confirmed by a sensitivity analysis, which proved the robustness of the results. Similarly, in the second step, the research analyzed PMG production and pricing effects on Attock Refinery Limited (ARL) sales using Multi Linear Regression (MLR), and found that production significantly boosts sales while price has minimal impact. Forecasting techniques, particularly ARIMA, effectively predicted petroleum demand, even reflecting COVID-19 disruptions. The research highlights the need for optimized PMG production and robust forecasting to ensure industry stability in Pakistan. Similarly, the research also leads to various policy formulations and will allow refineries to tackle uncertainties in the future. It provides an in-depth study of petroleum products that are preferred and in high demand so that the refineries can automate their production plans and schedule accordingly, to help maintain their sustainability.
How to Cite
Ali, Y. (2025). NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY: A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING AND FORECASTING APPROACH FOR SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION . International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 17(2). https://doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v17i2.1329
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Keywords
Petroleum, AHP, ARIMA, PMG, ARL, Refineries, Pakistan
References
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Grošelj, P., Zandebasiri, M. and Pezdevšek Malovrh, Š. (2023). Evaluation of the European experts on the application of the AHP method in sustainable forest management. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(11), 29189–29215.: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03859-w
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Imran Rafiq, M. (2024). A deepening political crisis, military involvement and economic woes: Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 00219096241230496. https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096241230496
Kelkar, M. (2024). Demise of fossil fuels part I: Supply and demand. Heliyon, 10(20), 1–11.
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Khan, A., Shi, C. & Ali, F. (2024). An integrated approach to strengthening maritime security: a case study of Gwadar Port of Pakistan. Marine Development, 2(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44312-024-00027-0
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